New Jersey Real Estate Information

Cranford NJ Foreclosure Report for 2009

Here are the statistics according to Realty Trac for Cranford NJ Foreclosures in 2009.

For these statistics, a 'foreclosure' is counted by Realty Trac any time a  homeowner receives any type of public notice, such as a Lis Pendens, a Notice of Default (NOD), or an actual auction or foreclosure sale notice.

In 2009, there were a total of 55 foreclosures in Cranford NJ. This accounts for approximately 1 foreclosure for every 158 housing units, or about .6% of homes.

This many not sound like a lot, and statistically its not, but if we track the trend, it was definitely going up towards the end of 2009. In the beginning of 2009, there were only 2 or 3 foreclosures being recorded each month. In December alone, there were 13. This causes statistics to be slightly misleading, as while there may have been a 100% or 200% increase in the number of foreclosures, when the numbers are this small, the percentages can be skewed very easily.

Let's compare Cranford to the rest of the State of New Jersey, Union County, and the US as a whole, here are the numbers for just December 2009:

Cranford: 1 out of every 671 Homes received foreclosure notice in December

Union County: 1 out of every 235

State of NJ: 1 out of every 345

United States: 1 ouf of ever 365

When examining these statistics, Cranford, while showing an increase in 2009, has still had FAR less foreclosures per capita than the nation, state, and county in December, even with the spike to 13 filings.

I expect this number in Cranford to rise a bit more through 2010, as the unemployment rate has caused a "Second Wave" of foreclosures and defaults, caused by lost wages. The "first wave" was caused mostly by sub prime and adjusting mortgages, which Cranford had less of than many more speculative areas of the country.

We are now 1 month into the new year, and compared to January of 2009, this year so far has been much more active in terms of buyer activity in the marketplace. One year ago, we were right in the thick of bank takeovers, massive Wall Street layoffs, and an unprecedented government stimulus package, part of which broadened and extended a first time homebuyer tax credit, which helped our local market tremendously in the 2nd through 4th quarters.

This year, while we are still battling 10% unemployment, and the effects of a deep recession, the real estate market in Westfield has shown signs that the bottom has passed, and sales remain steady or slightly improved year over year, but at lower prices on average. However, sales of starter homes ($500,000 and under) are selling extremely fast and have actually increased in price slightly in the past 6 months. When priced right, these homes are selling quickly and often with multiple offers, and this has led to a gradual loosening of the market in the upper ranges since people are starting to "move up" again if their jobs and income are secure.

Here is a summary of the year over year comparison of 2008 to 2009 in the Westfield NJ Real Estate Market.

2008

Closed Sales: 288

New Listings: 1446

Average Sales Price: $773,745

Average Days on Market: 76

Sale Price to List Price Ratio: 96 percent

2009

Closed Sales: 305 (an increase of 6 percent year over year)

**New Listings: 2542 (an increase of 75 percent from prior year)**

Average Sales Price: $693,463 (a decrease of 10 percent year over year)

Average Days on Market: 67

Sale Price to List Price Ratio: 96 percent

When examining these numbers, it is easy to see why the average sales price dropped 10 percent, as there was a surge in new listings on the market, especially in the first and second quarter, most likely attributed to the job losses in the financial sector in New York City, as many Westfield homeowners are employed by those institutions, and may have needed to sell their home due to job loss or relocation. As the year progressed, sales increased, and new listings slowed, which balanced the market somewhat, but not before prices dropped 10 percent.

What's Going to Happen in 2010?

No one really knows for sure. All signs point to a very slow recovery, and most likely a flat year for prices and sales. Prices should remain stable, and show slight seasonal increases or decreases, if the data trends hold.

The first time homebuyer tax credit is set to expire at the end of the 2nd quarter. If December sales were any indication, the sales of starter homes at the end of 2010 should decline, as buyers rush to get under contract before then, as they did in November of 2009 when the prior credit was originally set to expire. If the first time homebuyers don't buy at the same rate as they have been, either due to the credit expiring, or rising interest rates, there will likely be a slowdown in how quickly the unsold inventory gets scooped up. This will stifle price appreciation in the short term.

If jobs are created more rapidly, and interest rates stay favorable, one would expect homes to sell at a faster clip, demand to pick up, and prices to rise gradually. Only time will tell.

Sean Carroll is Realtor and Team Leader of Team Carroll at RE/MAX Supreme. To reach Sean for comment or questions, or for more information about the Westfield NJ Housing Market, or local real estate information, logon to www.TeamCarrollNJ.com. Or contact Sean at Sean@TeamCarrollNJ.com

In this report, we’ve included the comparison of the 2008 market statistics to the 2009 market statistics. Analysis coming soon, but here are the raw numbers:

2008

Closed Sales: 193

Average Sales Price: $441,793

Average Days on Market: 69

Sale Price to List Price Ratio: 96 percent

2009

Closed Sales: 199

Average Sales Price: $426,905

Average Days on Market: 67

Sale Price to List Price Ratio: 96 percent

Quick Summary: activity ended up nearly the same, despite a VERY slow start to the year. Prices averaged down about 5% for the year, because there were 500 MORE listings in 2009 than 2008, which created more supply than demand.

There will be a follow up post this week with full analysis for you!

Thanks for reading.

For anyone "on the fence" about buying a home, its important to know that this is an unprecedented time in history in terms of opportunity.

First, interest rates are at 20 to 30 year lows, depending upon the type of loan. Second, home prices in our suburban NYC markets are at their lowest since 2003, at between a 20-40% lower price than the peak of the market in 2005-2006. Third, the US Government is offering an $8000 tax credit for first time homebuyers AND a $6500 tax credit for any homebuyer who has lived in their home for at least 5 of the last 8 years.

If you have solid employment, and income/credit that qualifies and you have been thinking about buying, but have been "on the fence", or waiting for prices to come down it is hard to imagine conditions improving any further for making a home purchase. Even if prices go down, if the interest rates go up, and the tax credits expire, how much have you really gained by waiting?

Call us today for a free buyer consultation by phone to discuss your options! You might be surprised at the opportunities you have!

Westfield NJ Real Estate Market News…”What’s Happening Out There?”

With all of the news media reports about the ‘national’ economy, and the ‘national’ real estate market, it is very difficult to decipher exactly what that means for towns like Westfield. There really is no such thing as a “national” real estate market, as people who purchase homes in a community often work in that community, or within commuting distance. This means that they earn money locally, and usually spend that money locally.  The national media often reports on national statistics, and while they can be helpful to uncover trends in the macro-economy, it is important to understand that the Real Estate market, and even the economy are highly localized, and can vary tremendously from one state to the next, or even one town to the next.

In this month’s Market News, I thought it would be helpful to share what’s happening now, while also comparing it to historical data, to illustrate how Westfield real estate has performed from its peak of 2005-2006 to the present. Whether you are buying or selling, or just live in Westfield, this information can help you better understand how the recent recession has affected the local picture.

**All information is taken from the Garden State Multiple Listing Service Statistics**

Here are some Westfield, NJ Real Estate statistics:

Year to Date 2009 (through November 30)

Active Listings: 2408

Closed Transactions: 276

Average Days on Market (DOM): 78

Average Sold Price: $686,876

Sales Price to List Price Ratio: 96%

 These statistics don’t mean much unless compared with other periods in time, to see how the market is trending. So, let’s compare with the same period 2008

 January through November 2008

Active Listings: 1530

Closed Transactions: 274

Average DOM: 77

Average Sold Price: $772,436

Sales Price to List Price Ratio: 96%

 What does this mean? Well in looking at the averages, here are some factual conclusions:

   -Average Sales Price declined by approximately 11

    -Number of closed transactions remained almost the same

    -Number of active listings increased by 57%

 In summary, the average sales price in Westfield declined moderately in 2009. This can be attributed to the substantial increase in homes actively for sale over last year, but with no change in the number of closed sales. This means more supply, with the same demand, which leads to price decline.

 Overall, 2009 has been much more of a buyers market in Westfield, especially in the price ranges between $650,000 and $900,000, but towards the end of this year, there has been a balancing of supply and demand, perhaps indicating the market is in a bottoming process.  Home prices on average for first time buyers ($400,000 to $550,000 on average) have declined, but by less. This mirrors what happened in nearby Cranford in the same price ranges.

 In fact, in the first time homebuyer range, the prices actually showed a slight increase at year’s end, because there was actually a short supply of these homes, resulting in many multiple offer situations.

 Examining the numbers in more detail showed a steep decline in listings sold in January, February and March of 2009, as compared to last year, as this was the height of the financial crisis on Wall Street started by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September of 2008. The fear and uncertainty in the economy at the end of last year, translated to less closed sales in the start of this year.

 Here is one more comparison. When we compare the 12 months ending November 2009 data with key data from the peak of the market in the 12 months ending March 2006, here is how the 2009 market compares:

 Number of Closed Transactions: Decline of 29% since peak

Average Sold Price to List Price Ratio: Decline from 98% to 96% 

Active Listings for Sale: Increase of 124%

Average Days on Market: up from 53 to 76 days

 What this means for Westfield is that while prices may not have dropped as rapidly or heavily as other parts of the country, the buyers have had much more inventory from which to choose. So homes are still selling, and selling well, as long as they are priced correctly, and priced better than the competition. In fact, homes that are priced competitively in Westfield are selling often with multiple offers. The difference between now and 2005-2006, is that if a buyer gets outbid on a home they like, or finds a seller who will not accept a fair offer, they will just move on, and wait until they see another one that is priced well, rather than make a bid on the next house available, or overpay because there is more selection, and less urgency

Here is another very important statistic, which is number of expired listings in Westfield which failed to sell:

2004 – 39 expired listings

2005- 65 expired listings

2006 – 106 expired listings

 2007 – 112 expired listings

 2008 – 128 expired listings

 To help you understand what all of this means, here are some general observations when examining this data:

1. Westfield sellers who price their homes competitively and at today’s market value will sell their homes successfully in approximately 75-83 days, for approximately 96% of list price
2. Sellers who overprice their homes are 3 times more likely not to sell their home than at the market peak, and will likely stay on the market much longer.
3. These numbers are averages only. Homes for first time buyers have been selling more strongly than “move up” homes, and the price declines in homes priced from $650,000 to $900,000 have been more severe than the less expensive homes. Be sure to get an accurate market analysis or appraisal before listing your home for sale.
4. Westfield buyers will be purchasing their home today at anywhere from a 10-25% lower price than they would have had just a few years back, depending upon the price range of the home, and the neighborhood of the home they are buying. If a home is properly priced, there will likely be high interest, so offer fairly. If the home is not priced properly, use the comparable data to negotiate the best possible price.
5. Westfield has remained a stronger market than many other local towns because of the strong school system, access to transportation, and limited “investment, or speculative” buying during the real estate boom. The primary driver of the market and prices going forward will be employment, both locally and in New York City.

Ready to get in the holiday spirit! Come check out the Celebration Singers Adult and Children's Choir at the Harvest Training Center, 69 Myrtle St. Cranford, NJ.

Tickets are $15 for adults and $10 for Seniors and Children. Concerts begin at 8:15 PM on Friday December 4, and 7 PM on Saturday December 5th!

For the Full News Story Click Here

While the housing market has certainly showed signs of recovery in our area, the fact remains that with unemployment at a 25 year high, many homeowners in our area are struggling to afford their monthly mortgage payment due to either job loss, income cuts,  mortgage payment increases due to interest rate “resets”, or some other type of life hardship such as a family illness, which happen in any economy.

Although local towns like Scotch Plains, Westfield, and Cranford have not experienced nearly the amount of foreclosures and “distressed” property sales as areas such as Las Vegas, South Florida, or California, the financial crisis has still had an effect on the local distressed property numbers.

Distressed properties include those homes that have already been foreclosed on by the banks, homes that are in the process of foreclosure, homes that are on the market for sale, but are worth less than their mortgage balance (short sales), or homes where the homeowner is already in default (30 days or more late on the mortgage) or will soon be in default (current now, but likely won’t be for long)

Some of these numbers are harder to track, as the unfortunate reality is that 7 out of 10 homeowners that go into foreclosure have done so with no visible signs of intervention, such as listing the property for sale, or attempting to contact their mortgage lender. For this reason, these properties do not show up in the distressed property numbers until the lender has filed a public notice of default, or a public notice of foreclosure sale, or in some cases, until the home is sold at auction.

According to RealtyTrac, foreclosure filings in Scotch Plains totaled 36 in the third quarter of this year, which is up from 8 in the first quarter. While this may not seem like a lot, it is an increase of nearly 4 times. The troubling fact about this statistic is that these are just the public notices that have been filed, and do NOT include homeowners who may be as much as 90-120 days in default on the mortgage, but have not received a public notice yet.

Nationwide, it is estimated that at least 10% of all mortgages are in default, so it is a fair assumption that there are hundreds of homeowners in Scotch Plains who may not appear in these statistics, but who are still struggling to pay their mortgage every month and don’t know what to do about it. As the economy and housing market stabilize, much like unemployment, the foreclosures and defaults may still continue to rise, even as the housing market improves with increased transactions.

It’s important for local area homeowners who are having difficulty paying their mortgages that there are other options besides foreclosure. In fact, foreclosure should be the last resort, as it is one of the most emotionally and financially devastating consequence, and it CAN be avoided. Many homeowners are not even aware that there are numerous ways which can help them avoid foreclosure, and in many cases help them keep their home. Some of these options include mortgage modification, forebearance, reinstatement, refinance, short sale, deed in lieu of foreclosure.

While some of these may be viable options for distressed homeowners, it is critical for these individuals to receive good legal, real estate, and tax advice from qualified professionals in the area before making any decisions. In most cases, a licensed Real Estate Agent with experience in distressed properties is an excellent first resource for not only information about possibly selling the property, but also as someone who has a trusted network of attorneys, CPA’s, and lenders in their database ready to give the homeowner the advice that they need. Realtors who have earned the CDPE designation as Certified Distressed Property Experts, have some of the best training and experience on this subject, and more information about the CDPE designation can be found by clicking here.

In future articles, we will be publishing more information on the different options for homeowners in need of this type of assistance. For a detailed explanation, or to download free reports on this subject, homeowners in Scotch Plains can logon to http://www.HomeOwnerHelpSite.com

We've received over 15 votes for restaurants, and by this time next week we will need to narrow the list, so we can come up with a top 5! There have been votes for Italian, Asian, Steak, Diners, American contemporary. They all sound terrific. Have you voted for your favorite yet??? If not...comment here and cast your vote for the best restaurants in Union County, NJ and make your voices heard!!

Here at Team Carroll, we pride ourselves on being on the cutting edge of real estate service and technology. Our market research said that home buyers wanted video...we listened!

This is our first attempt at a "virtual showing" which will take you on a 5 minute tour of 1043 Woolley Avenue in Union, NJ.

This will show you not only the wonderful things this home has to offer, but help potential homebuyers learn how we show homes, and hopefully help them become more comfortable working with Team Carroll to help them buy. Enjoy this virtual showing!